Weak supply and demand pressure SHFE tin to fall by over 1%, waiting for breakthrough signals amid macro gloom [SMM tin futures brief comment]

The closing price of the most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508) was 263,240 yuan/mt, down 1.12%. Intraday fluctuations: a high of 266,150 yuan/mt and a low of 261,510 yuan/mt, with a settlement price of 263,730 yuan/mt. Trading volume and open interest: trading volume was 90,649 lots, and open interest was 24,450 lots, a decrease of 754 lots from the previous day.

The latest quote for LME tin contracts: $33,385/mt, down 0.52% intraday. Inventory dynamics: LME inventory remains low.

The conditions for production resumptions at tin mines in Myanmar's Wa region have been largely met, and subsequent imports may gradually recover. However, Thailand has banned the transit of tin ores from southern Myanmar, blocking import channels. In the DRC, the Bisie mine's Q2 production fell 3.8% MoM to 4,106 mt due to armed conflicts, falling below the target. The operating rates of smelters in Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces in China are only 54.07%, with raw material inventories generally lasting less than 30 days. Hidden risks: The arrival cycle of African ore sources has been extended, and transportation issues during the rainy season have exacerbated the tight balance situation.

Spot premiums: Yunnan Tin's spot premium over futures is 800–1,200 yuan/mt. However, after prices rebounded to 266,000 yuan, trading quickly slowed down, with traders' daily average trading volume being only 10–30 mt.

The central bank's 1.4 trillion yuan reverse repo operations have been implemented. In H1, social financing increased by 22.83 trillion yuan, and the M2 growth rate was 8.3%, signaling economic resilience.

Real estate sales are still declining YoY. Demand for home appliances and automotive electronics has not yet shown a turning point, and policy transmission takes time.

The US's 50% tariff exemption period for the EU is about to expire, and the EU's 72 billion euro retaliatory tariffs are pending, raising global supply chain risks.

The US's June CPI is expected to rise YoY to 2.7% (previous value: 2.4%), and the core CPI is expected to rise to 3.0%. Delayed interest rate cut expectations are suppressing risk assets.